However, other predictors went the other way, and predicted the Liberals would get a majority. CBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Progressive Conservative % change (2007-2011). (starting to see a trend here?) The polls for the most part were fairly accurate. These areas are rural and exurban in nature, but whose agricultural traditions are different from the large farms of southwestern Ontario. Forum Research did I think three riding polls of Sudbury. Results map of the 2011 Ontario election by riding. Ontarians elected their first minority government in 26 years, with the Liberal Party winning a plurality of seats at 53, one shy of a majority. I thought Liberal MPP John Wilkinson would fit the bill (and I wasn't the only one to think this). also increased their seat count, to 17. Thus the prediction of the election result in terms of the seats distribution in the provincial legislature is based on a prediction of the election result in each constituency. Notice how most of those seats are in rural areas, where the Liberals lost much of their support. Their best increases came in ridings with strong candidates, like in Essex, Bramalea--Gore--Malton, Niagara Falls, Scarborough--Rouge River, and the leader's seat of Hamilton Centre. We crunched the numbers (which arrived in 107 spreadsheets) to get poll-by-poll results for the 2011 election, showing the vote across the province in its true complexity, micro-neighbourhood by micro-neighbourhood. Brant was one of those races that if I took into some of the final polls to be released into consideration, I may have flipped. People in Toronto saw what happened with vote splitting in the federal election, and voted Liberal to stop the Tories. Voter Registration The Liberals held on to this seat by 1000 votes. Get a roundup of the most important and intriguing national stories delivered to your inbox every weekday. Ontarians went to the poll last month, and now I've finally been able to post my official post-election analysis. That includes a 13% discrepancy for the NDP, which I had losing 44-37. I do recall in the Summer predicting this seat going Liberal, but I got an email from someone saying I was dead wrong. Vote-rich region stays mostly Liberal red. The two first duked it out in a by-election in 2007 where Ferreira won by 350 votes. However, that did not happen in this provincial election, even though I was sure it would happen here in Kenora. The Tories will remain the official opposition, increasing their seat count to 37, and the N.D.P. Ontario’s voting again. Results map of the 2011 Ontario election by riding. But that was not the case. Some of the party's worst losses in votes came in areas in which they did quite well in 2007. These areas are attractive to certain Green-friendly voters. Their worst seats came in more rural parts of the province, mostly in ridings they did not have incumbents. Overall I just got 9 ridings wrong, or just 8% of the seats. I hope Tim Hudak, and the PCs will take down McGuinty's Liberal Government as soon as possible!!! Go to the Subscriptions Centre to manage your: All results are unofficial until final ballot counts are verified by Elections Ontario. Not even their leader could increase the vote % for the party. While much of the riding is rural, its main centre of Brantford kept the riding from being swept up in the Tories' rural sweep of the province. My prediction showed an even closer race, with both parties at 39%. Elected & Leading results last published: Oct. 7, 2011, 8:56 AM EDT 107 Seats Total All results are unofficial until final ballot counts are verified by Elections Ontario . Supporters celebrate Jagmeet Singh's historic victory in Peel Thursday night. The Forum Research poll seemed to agree with me as well. Their worst seats came in the most urban parts of the province, like in Ottawa Centre, and downtown Toronto. casino suspects, Coronavirus vaccine by Oxford-AstraZeneca produces immune response among adults, Patty Hajdu responds to Twitter photo, says she only removes mask to eat, drink, Ontario reports 851 new coronavirus cases and 6 more deaths. This map is mostly green, because the Tories increased their support in much of the province. However, they weren't able to win the seat, as the Liberals ended up increasing their margin to 500 votes. This feature requires the Adobe Flash plugin version 8 or higher. Their best seats came mostly in the Greater Toronto Area. I was very close to the actual results, being an average of less than 2% per party. It was also the NDP's primary target in the province, having only lost the race the race by 50 votes in 2007. A few months later however, Albanese won in the general election by just 500 votes. I posted my predictions before some of the final polls came out, and that can be blamed for that. It seemed with the NDP polling higher in the province, that it was time for the party to win the seat back. I was off by an average of less than 2% for each major party. The Tories picked up 11 of these, and the NDP picked up 7. Progressive Conservatives win a majority government Led by Doug Ford, Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives secured a majority government, ending nearly 15 years of Liberal power in the province. The N.D.P. I predicted the NDP would win by 3%, with 37%. I predicted the Tories would win by 5 points, but the Liberals won by 2. They were able to hold onto their urban seats though, something the federal Liberals had trouble doing in May. After all- you guessed it- Forum Research had them winning it. The Greens were reduced to their traditional "Green triangle", in the area northwest of Toronto. Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, 201... British Columbia municipal elections: preview. In this map, red is bad for the Liberals, and there is a lot. Timeline: Police investigations into alleged illegal casinos and transnational crime networks in Ontario and B.C. This meant that this seat was up for grabs. Overall, I did quite well with the results in Ontario. Methodology: Elections in Ontario employ a "first-past-the-post" voting system. Polls agreed with that assessment, but the more recent riding polls showed an NDP lead here. gained, 3.8% and 6.0% respectively. The best riding for the Greens was the exurban riding Dufferin-Caledon, which they also did quite well in the federal election. Until now, it seemed to me that no matter how much the NDP improves on its past performances, they always lose a seat or two in the process (e.g. Perhaps, I was a little too focused on the fact that the Forum Research poll said the Tories would win here. They also did well in Hamilton, where they won all three urban seats, and in that belt of ridings in Toronto, where they won 5 seats, and finished 2nd in the other 3. This is another seat I probably would have flipped had I seen the final polls. The NDP vote was down big time in Kenora--Rainy River where former leader Howard Hampton retired, and in Welland where Peter Kormos retired. The Greens meanwhile lost much of their support, and were down 5.1% from from their best result in 2007. The Liberals got 42, and the NDP got 41%. All the other pollsters were within the margin of error. The Tories won by just 600 votes. Forum Research was almost right on the money, giving the Liberals 37%, the Tories 36%, the NDP with 23% and the Greens at 3%. Not one riding showed an increase in votes for the Greens. They lost two seats in the federal election). I thought the NDP would win by 4%. There were a few rural gains for the Liberals. The NDP did win the seat pretty handily, by 2600 votes and nearly 50% of the vote. In Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound for example, the Liberal vote increased due to the collapse of the Greens. The seat was vacated by the retirement of Liberal Bruce Crozier. List of registered parties, reserved names, and third party advertisers. They also had strong showings in Thunder Bay, Ottawa, London and Windsor. And of course, Forum Research predicted a Tory victory! Don Valley West is the darkest red, where their former leader, John Tory ran in 2007. Ontarians went to the poll last month, and now I've finally been able to post my official post-election analysis. Except for Kenora--Rainy River and Timmins--James Bay, the Tories are still the third place party in Northern Ontario. And of course, there's those smattering of seats in Toronto. I was off by an average just over 2% per party. Click a riding for detailed information.Search your address in the box in the upper left, or click the map and drag to move around. A belt of ridings beginning in York West, and going south to Lake Ontario and turning east until Beaches--East York was especially an empty zone for the PCs. It was round 3 of the Liberals' Laura Albanese against the NDP's Paul Ferreira. The Liberals were late in nominating their candidate, and what's worse was they nominated an Anglophone. The federal Conservatives have also held this seat since 2006. Ontarians elected their first minority government in 26 years, with the Liberal Party winning a plurality of seats at 53, one shy of a majority. After the polls close on election night, unofficial results, which give the number of votes cast for each candidate, are posted on our website as they are reported by the Returning Officer.These results do not include a breakdown of poll-by-poll results. Please read our Commenting Policy first. I thought if the Liberals were to keep one rural seat, it would be this one. 's Tarys Natyshak won in the surprise of the night. It was a close race though, the Liberals won the seat by 1300 votes. A closer look at the makeup of Ontario's Legislature after the Oct. 6 election. I had figured a similar scenario was about to occur in this election. Those are the ridings where they lost support. I did predict the NDP to do well in Essex, I had them losing the seat by 5%. Firstly, the seat was vacated by former NDP leader Howard Hampton, meaning it was up for grabs. In Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, they benefited from having an incumbent that won in a by-election that they didn't have in 2007. The worst areas for the Greens were in the more populist rural areas like in Northern Ontario, and in Southwestern Ontario. They actually got 38% of the vote, but the Liberals did much better than I thought, getting 39%. I was certainly benefited from receiving the riding by riding results of Forum Research's mega survey done during the campaign, which I may have relied on too heavily, but wasn't too far off the mark in some races. NDP leader Andrea Horwath’s decision to vote down the budget meant Ontarians can prepare to head to the polls about a year and a half after the last election returned a Liberal minority government. The NDP map is also fairly green, as they also increased their support across the province. The NDP had their best ridings in their traditional areas. Secondly, the federal NDP has been having trouble in this seat, one of their few hold outs in the region. 322,000 Ontario students choose NDP minority government in mock election, Third party likely to cave to Liberals ahead of vote, Users of CBC's Vote Compass rate the issues of the Ontario election, The parties' positions on issues from healthcare to taxation, The online hunt for votes is picking up steam as the election looms, There was no knockdown, no 'moment' in the 90-minute debate, Chat and on demand video of Ontario leaders' debate, Try voting under an entirely different set of rules, Alarm bells rung over plans to tackle multibillion-dollar deficit, Have a go at reshaping the province's finances.
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