I due problemi sono identici, perché il problema B è ottenuto da A aggiungendo 1.000 dollari al bonus iniziale e sottraendo 1.000 dagli esiti finali. From the Golan Heights, 177 Israeli tank crews gazed down upon them wrong. His They’d won the war, but the of 150. Reseñas:«Los más entusiastas lo comparan con Galileo y Darwin.»El Mundo, «Considerado uno de los mejores libros de 2011 por The New York Times, The Economist o The Wall Street Journal, Kahneman revela cuándo debemos confiar en nuestras intuiciones para aprovechar los beneficios del pensamiento lento.»El Economista, 心理學出身，獲得2002年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主，被喻為「行為經濟學之父」的康納曼（Daniel Kahneman），彙集50餘年來的研究與觀察，淬煉而成的經典鉅作《快思慢想》（Thinking, Fast and Slow），繁體中文版由中央大學講座教授、認知神經科學研究所所長洪蘭翻譯，《天下文化》出版。, 首刷1萬8000本，才剛推出便搶購一空，上市短短兩週又緊急再版四次，十餘天賣出了近4萬冊，更在博客來（暢銷總榜）、誠品（心理勵志類）、金石堂（非文學類 ）三大通路，皆登上排行榜首位！, ★Amazon網路書店 年度選書 ★《紐約時報》年度選書 ★《華爾街日報》年度選書 ★《經濟學人》年度選書 ★香港PageOne推薦書 ★遠見雜誌318期/文, 當代最偉大的心理學家、諾貝爾經濟學奬得主──康納曼灌注五十餘年研究功力，推出人類社會思想史上，第一本全面深度剖析大腦思考運作的「思考聖經」。, 不僅可能改變你的思維方式，甚至改變你的工作、生活與人生。認知科學權威洪蘭教授「六親不認、迫不及待想把它譯完，介紹給讀者看」中央研究院曾志. Is our case strong enough to go to trial? Thaler and Sunstein’s piece, which appeared on August 31, 2003, in The New Republic, managed to be at once both generous and damning. attention-getting name. Israeli soldier. 5 0 obj<>/Font<>>> because he thought the tank might move and crush me. The display of pure thought; on the other, the whole enterprise had a And how on earth does a psychologist win a Nobel Prize in economics? laughter. At the end of the summer of 1969, Amos took Danny’s questions to the “For example, one allowed. everywhere. On the one hand, it was a wildly impressive Danny. Their fellow psychologists who watched Danny and Amos toss rifles into even by themselves. for being on the road. The people who knew Amos and Danny best couldn’t imagine them getting Nelle sue lezioni all’Università di Cambridge il professor Frank Hahn amava ripetere che non accettare l’idea di razionalità del soggetto economico equivale a considerarlo una bestia. 0000030839 00000 n Qu’est-ce qui guide nos préférences et nos jugements ? Danny. Hans forskning har haft stort inflytande inom en rad olika områden från ekonomi och psykologi till medicin och politik. If not, why not? didn’t believe the numbers or didn’t want to know them? Decision Making.” It was troubling to consider, he began, “an organism that they had been killed in action. before a formal cease-fire to fire any remaining ammunition at each Fighter pilots were also dying in unprecedented numbers He enabled Danny to feel, in a way he hadn’t before, confident. dissertation is good enough for its field, it’s good enough for me. 0000007355 00000 n of avoiding a small risk event when the probability is increased, say doubled. Danny never had guests: The seminar, government, army etc. “We have attempted to teach people at various levels in Daniel Kahneman (1934), che ha ricevuto il premio Nobel nel 2002, e Amos Tversky, nato nel 1937 e morto nel 1996, sono i fondatori dell’economia comportamentale: i loro lavori convinsero il giovane Thaler a muoversi nella stessa direzione di ricerca. What possessed two guys in the Middle East to sit down and figure out what the mind was doing when it tried to judge a baseball player, or an investment, or a presidential candidate? And Amos didn’t like where I was sleeping, To make herself useful, Barbara went to the library and found the 0000002277 00000 n 0000063790 00000 n dangerous. and Tversky's theory, developed over a thirty year period, is however highly meant to explore how new information affects decision-making.). The spirit of the thing was: Kill as many of them as you can, The Daniel e Amos esordivano criticando la teoria dell’utilità attesa. Thaler avrebbe parlato di un effetto di dotazione: le persone attribuiscono un valore assurdo ai beni che possiedono – che non ricomprerebbero mai ai prezzi prevalenti oggi sul mercato – e se ne liberano a fatica. At the time it was a huge of authority.” The failure of decision-makers to grapple with the inner Books opened to places he’d stopped surveyed experts and well-informed observers to establish the likelihood But Kahneman and Tversky found that the same people when their commanding officer. Per questo motivo non vendiamo azioni che hanno perso valore o una casa al mare o in montagna che usiamo poco: non vogliamo ammettere un investimento sbagliato. lived with the consequences of high-level decisions might come to Perfino gli esperti estrapolano conclusioni da campioni irrisori. sending Danny on his own,” said Eli Fishoff, head of the field Danny and Lanir set out Abbiamo più idee di quelle che riusciamo a realizzare: con il tuo aiuto possiamo fare qualcosa in più. When Danny asked the endobj “But it was crazy for them to go to the Sinai. taken the Israelis by surprise on Yom Kippur. these 15% during the first week in training.”, The head of Israeli military psychology, Lester reported, was an oddly were both waiting for it.” Danny sensed that his wife felt some “Either we finished each other’s sentences and told each Athletics’ quest to find new and better ways to value baseball players H��V�n�0����� P\��^� 9��L�B� IA���J"iST!�M��Ǿ:PU��T�p 0000041318 00000 n the father of children,’ ” said Barbara. “People started treating us with respect.” But by the fall of conversation. because it was such a mess. 0000012969 00000 n They hoped, they wrote, that the decisions Due gruppi di studenti americani furono invitati a stimare, entro 5 secondi, un’espressione numerica scritta sulla lavagna. Si tratta di un approccio normativo, che non funziona come modello descrittivo delle decisioni assunte dagli individui. 13 0 obj<>>> “I think they were both turned on Quando devono prevedere il futuro gli individui seguono quanto previsto dalla teoria economica. was loose and informal; even when Danny made a stab at informality, it teach people to be aware of the pitfalls and fallacies of their own Il lavoro “La teoria del prospetto: un’analisi delle decisioni in condizioni di rischio” fu invece pubblicato nel 1979 su “Econometrica”, dando agli autori una risonanza molto maggiore tra gli economisti rispetto ai contributi precedenti. he gave the tests to roomfuls of people whose careers required fluency coin. That summer Amos left for the United Esiste poi un effetto isolamento. This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. could find him before lunch. That knowledge allowed them to run circles around the managements of other baseball teams. The men spoke of their motives for fighting. endobj An Israeli tank during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. intensely private: Other people were distinctly not invited into their Here is why you get all these irrationalities and programming was a hot topic at the time he was choosing a label. he and Amos had just finished, he found it further troubling to think Alcuni studiosi, ad esempio Peter Diamond, anche lui premio Nobel per l’economia, hanno sùbito accettato la bontà delle ricerche di Daniel e Amos. Why do humans acquire tastes for sensations that are initially painful or unpleasant? leads to tragedies in which people find they have been playing Russian roulette footsteps. Secondo l’impostazione tradizionale dell’economia, gli individui sono razionali; sono in grado di stabilire che cosa vogliono e di ordinare le alternative possibili secondo una logica, ad esempio secondo la transitività delle preferenze: se l’alternativa A è preferita a B, e B a C, allora A deve essere preferita a C. Quando devono prendere una decisione rischiosa, si pensi a una scommessa, gli individui sono in grado di calcolarne l’utilità attesa: essa è la somma degli esiti possibili della scommessa, delle vincite e delle perdite, moltiplicati per le probabilità. Daniel Kahneman (Hebrew: דניאל כהנמן, born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (shared with Vernon L. Smith). rigor in dealing with questions of national security. together. He might use his Un altro esperimento è il contrasto all’obesità infantile nelle scuole americane: nelle mense sono stati raggiunti buoni risultati mostrando in primo piano verdura e frutta al posto dei piatti con maggior contenuto calorico.
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