colorado river drought 2020

All rights reserved. Take this CRS report (13 October 2020) about my favorite river: 'Management of the Colorado River: Water Allocations, Drought, and the Federal Role'.. "There is uncertainty and risk on the horizon," Burman said. They took an existing computer model of the interplay between global oceans and the atmosphere and added to it historical ocean data on temperature and salinity. “Reclamation’s technical experts provide leading-edge scientific modeling which helps Colorado River water managers make their operational decisions,” said Commissioner Brenda Burman. “So basically this paper represents a first step in trying to develop a longer-term forecasting tool.

By Warren Cornwall Oct. 16, 2020 , 6:00 PM. Former BYU stars Daniel Sorensen, Jamaal Williams, Fred Warner all had big days in NFL. “The main result of Yoshi’s study is really about that Colorado River watershed and how much water is available,” she said. 16, 2020 , 6:00 PM. More localized studies of the Colorado River Basin also show that as climate change continues to heat and dry the region, the river’s flows will keep dropping. Drought in Colorado from 2000 - 2020. The chance of a Lower Basin shortage increases by as much as 20 Percent. In one recent study, researchers estimated warmer temperatures were behind about half of the decline in the river’s flow since 2000, and they projected the river could lose about a fourth of its flow by 2050 as global temperatures continue to rise with emissions of greenhouse gases. However, more resources would have to become available to make the project truly operational going forward. She said officials across the Colorado River Basin have worked well in developing fixes to adapt to the situation. Start your day with the top stories you missed while you were sleeping. All rights Reserved. As Eric Kuhn and John Fleck write in their new book, “Science Be Dammed: How Ignoring Inconvenient Science Drained the Colorado River,” even during compact negotiations in the 1920s, records showed the river’s annual flows were lower than the total 17.5 million acre-feet allocated to the seven states and Mexico. Display Previous Colorado Drought Monitor Maps: Colorado Drought Map for October 13, 2020; Colorado Drought Map for October 6, 2020; Colorado Drought Map for September 29, 2020 Precipitation during the 2020 water year in most of the Upper Colorado River Basin was below 70% of normal, said Zach Schwalbe, a research associate at the Colorado Climate Center. And people in places like Colorado can only hope that when it comes to precipitation, water year 2021 has better things in store. The predictions on water levels were based on a coupled climate model. “They worked really hard for us,” she said. “I think of it like you and I, if we knew that a recession was coming next year, what would you do? LOGAN — Scientists can now predict drought and overall water supply on the Colorado River years in advance, according to a new study published by researchers at Utah State University.

Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will see cuts this year, while California could follow in future years if reservoir storage declines continue.
Support local journalism: Subscribe to azcentral.com today. In the lower basin, California, Nevada and Arizona have long overused their share of the river (approximately 7.5 million acre-feet annually, averaged over 10-year rolling cycles), Fleck says, whereas the upper basin states have yet to use more than around 4 million acre-feet (of the “remaining” 7.5 million acre-feet originally intended, but not necessarily guaranteed, for them). “Even when folks in most places have ample access to water that may not be the case everywhere, especially during a drought,” he said. Water deliveries were reduced last year to Arizona and Nevada under those states’ agreement with California. Email notifications are only sent once a day, and only if there are new matching items. The U.S. Drought Monitor started in 2000. If the approach works, it could be a first step toward developing longer term river forecasts, the scientists say. The team of scientists believe long-term “ocean memory,” in conjunction with atmospheric effects and the influence of land systems, correlates with cycles of drought in parts of the western U.S., which then leads to water shortages on the Colorado River. “Everyone came together to address the risks we've seen on this system,” Burman said. “If we know now that next year we will have a severe drought, water managers can work proactively,” says Yoshi Chikamoto, a climate dynamics expert at Utah State University, Logan, who helped lead the research. The government’s projections coincided with the release of new report from Utah State University’s Center for Colorado River Studies in which researchers focused on how dry future conditions might become. The Colorado River, stretching 1,450 miles, is one of the longest and most important water bodies in the U.S. The river channel into the Las Colonias water park is closed because of low water in the Colorado River. An earlier version of this article appeared in the Fall 2019 issue of Headwaters magazine. For forecasts beyond 2 years, results were no more accurate than a coin toss. Additionally, the ocean temperature patterns could explain only 38% of the fluctuations in Colorado River water, the researchers found.

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